Synth reporting
Andrew Baxter
2020-04-23
1 Setting up data
Data from Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database was used to calculate birth rates. This was tidied to give Under-18 rates:
| Code | Country | Year | rate | GDPperCap | MF_ratio | MobilePhones | UrbanPop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Denmark | 1990 | 2.94 | 26891.44 | 1.04 | 2.88 | 84.84 |
| 5 | Denmark | 1991 | 2.65 | 27011.39 | 1.04 | 3.41 | 84.87 |
| 5 | Denmark | 1992 | 3.08 | 29569.65 | 1.04 | 4.08 | 84.90 |
| 5 | Denmark | 1993 | 2.90 | 27597.97 | 1.04 | 6.89 | 84.92 |
| 5 | Denmark | 1994 | 2.71 | 29995.57 | 1.05 | 9.66 | 84.95 |
| 5 | Denmark | 1995 | 2.19 | 35351.38 | 1.05 | 15.71 | 84.98 |
Abortion estimates were added to give Under-20 rates:
| Code | Country | Year | pRate | rate | GDPperCap | MF_ratio | MobilePhones | UrbanPop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Denmark | 1990 | 26.51 | 9.20 | 26891.44 | 1.05 | 2.88 | 84.84 |
| 4 | Denmark | 1991 | 25.33 | 9.00 | 27011.39 | 1.04 | 3.41 | 84.87 |
| 4 | Denmark | 1992 | 25.43 | 9.70 | 29569.65 | 1.04 | 4.08 | 84.90 |
| 4 | Denmark | 1993 | 24.81 | 9.14 | 27597.97 | 1.05 | 6.89 | 84.92 |
| 4 | Denmark | 1994 | 24.07 | 9.21 | 29995.57 | 1.05 | 9.66 | 84.95 |
| 4 | Denmark | 1995 | 23.08 | 8.72 | 35351.38 | 1.05 | 15.71 | 84.98 |
1.1 Removing non-fitting countries
Several countries were removed (detail added later).
2 Iterating through year combinations
For each comparison, I iterated through all combinations of years as special predictors to minimise MSPE (whilst prioritising fewest groupings). For example, for the under-18 basic model with years as special predictors:
it_u18_sp <- testSynthIterations(
yrs = 1990:1998,
pred = "rate",
data = synthData_u18[,1:4],
ccodes = u_18_ccodes,
n = 4,
predictors = NULL,
time.optimise = 1985:1998
) %>%
arrange(groups, mspe)3 All countries, no additional predictors
3.1 Model 1: Under-18 birth rates
3.1.1 All Countries graph
3.1.2 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of -3,744 births (to an average population of 995,340 women).
3.1.3 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| Scotland | 0.672 |
| Portugal | 0.295 |
| United States of America | 0.016 |
| New Zealand | 0.012 |
| Iceland | 0.001 |
| Sweden | 0.001 |
| Switzerland | 0.000 |
| Germany | 0.000 |
| Denmark | 0.000 |
| Spain | 0.000 |
| Finland | 0.000 |
| France | 0.000 |
| Italy | 0.000 |
| Netherlands | 0.000 |
| Norway | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.01 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.333 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.295 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.362 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.275 | 10.415 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 14.952 | 9.629 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.561 | 9.660 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 16.728 | 9.257 |
3.1.4 Placebo testing by country and time
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 14 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
3.2 Model 2: Under-20 pregnancy rates
3.2.1 All Countries graph
3.2.2 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of 152,471 pregnancies (to an average population of 1,668,190 women).
3.2.3 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| Scotland | 0.639 |
| United States of America | 0.227 |
| Iceland | 0.134 |
| Switzerland | 0.000 |
| Germany | 0.000 |
| Denmark | 0.000 |
| Spain | 0.000 |
| Finland | 0.000 |
| France | 0.000 |
| Italy | 0.000 |
| Netherlands | 0.000 |
| Norway | 0.000 |
| Portugal | 0.000 |
| New Zealand | 0.000 |
| Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.152 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.578 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.271 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 65.337 | 35.661 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.055 | 32.224 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 61.259 | 30.895 |
3.2.4 Placebo testing by country and time
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 11 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
4 Filtered to remove Scotland, no additional predictors
4.1 Model 3: Under-18 birth rates
4.1.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of -17,765 births (to an average population of 995,340 women).
Loss-V (For optimised period) = 0.616, MSPE (for whole pre-intervention observation period) = 0.616.
4.1.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| Portugal | 0.807 |
| New Zealand | 0.193 |
| Switzerland | 0.000 |
| Germany | 0.000 |
| Denmark | 0.000 |
| Spain | 0.000 |
| Finland | 0.000 |
| France | 0.000 |
| Iceland | 0.000 |
| Italy | 0.000 |
| Netherlands | 0.000 |
| Norway | 0.000 |
| Sweden | 0.000 |
| United States of America | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.206 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.156 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.318 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.32 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.587 | 9.928 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 15.963 | 9.210 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.782 | 9.155 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 15.803 | 8.607 |
4.1.3 Placebo testing by country and time
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 14 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
4.2 Model 4: Under-20 pregnancy rates
4.2.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of 250,707 pregnancies (to an average population of 1,668,190 women).
Loss-V (For optimised period) = 6.03, MSPE (for whole pre-intervention observation period) = 6.03.
4.2.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| Iceland | 0.359 |
| United States of America | 0.353 |
| New Zealand | 0.288 |
| Switzerland | 0.000 |
| Germany | 0.000 |
| Denmark | 0.000 |
| Spain | 0.000 |
| Finland | 0.000 |
| France | 0.000 |
| Italy | 0.000 |
| Netherlands | 0.000 |
| Norway | 0.000 |
| Portugal | 0.000 |
| Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.309 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.498 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.193 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 67.005 | 34.180 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.152 | 30.590 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 60.236 | 28.987 |
4.2.3 Placebo testing by country and time
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 9 out of 15 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
5 Adding all predictors
5.1 Model 5: Under-18 birth rates
5.1.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Loss-V (For optimised period) = 2.5, MSPE (for whole pre-intervention observation period) = 2.5.
5.1.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| Italy | 0.374 |
| Iceland | 0.328 |
| United States of America | 0.298 |
| Switzerland | 0.000 |
| Germany | 0.000 |
| Denmark | 0.000 |
| Spain | 0.000 |
| Finland | 0.000 |
| France | 0.000 |
| Netherlands | 0.000 |
| Norway | 0.000 |
| Portugal | 0.000 |
| Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.028 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.023 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.034 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.15 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 0.014 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 0.078 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 0.014 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 0.003 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 0.13 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 0 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 0.022 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 0.011 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 0.126 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 0.092 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 0.088 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 0.087 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 0.098 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 17.099 | 8.005 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 16.268 | 7.329 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 16.157 | 7.099 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 14.511 | 6.703 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 24800.333 | 26808.216 | 26870.008 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 39983.985 | 39557.010 | 39108.220 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 43340.344 | 44960.799 | 47573.339 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 41975.732 | 43998.534 | 52420.115 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 4.223 | 5.330 | 5.616 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 5.296 | 5.885 | 5.627 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 5.794 | 5.884 | 5.691 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 2.256 | 2.896 | 2.778 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 6.881 | 7.278 | 7.214 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 13.808 | 18.177 | 18.310 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 98.113 | 95.733 | 93.736 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 78.140 | 77.151 | 74.238 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 78.112 | 77.323 | 74.478 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 78.172 | 77.514 | 74.734 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 79.690 | 79.327 | 77.582 |
5.1.3 Placebo testing by country
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 5 out of 14 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
5.2 Model 6: Under-20 pregnancy rates
5.2.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Loss-V (For optimised period) = 17.2, MSPE (for whole pre-intervention observation period) = 17.2.
5.2.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| United States of America | 0.522 |
| Iceland | 0.278 |
| Italy | 0.201 |
| Switzerland | 0.000 |
| Germany | 0.000 |
| Denmark | 0.000 |
| Spain | 0.000 |
| Finland | 0.000 |
| France | 0.000 |
| Netherlands | 0.000 |
| Norway | 0.000 |
| Portugal | 0.000 |
| Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.175 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.156 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.315 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 0 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 0.001 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 0.004 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 0.054 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 0.001 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 0.014 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 0.006 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 0.11 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 0.087 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 0.071 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 0.004 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 68.849 | 32.961 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 63.155 | 29.104 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 57.510 | 27.083 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 2.256 | 3.182 | 2.778 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 6.881 | 8.184 | 7.214 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 13.808 | 18.494 | 18.310 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 98.113 | 85.702 | 93.736 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 4.223 | 5.570 | 5.616 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 5.296 | 6.133 | 5.627 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 5.794 | 6.239 | 5.691 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 24800.333 | 28604.113 | 26870.008 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 39983.985 | 41170.217 | 39108.220 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 43340.344 | 46569.676 | 47573.339 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 41975.732 | 46884.569 | 52420.115 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 78.140 | 77.870 | 74.238 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 78.112 | 78.125 | 74.478 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 78.172 | 78.389 | 74.734 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 79.690 | 80.692 | 77.582 |
5.2.3 Placebo testing by country
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 8 out of 14 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
